İDLİB - Turkey being a party in the civil wars of Syria and Libya is about lose Russia as a partner that it uses against NATO and USA. Russia that is  at the point of conflict with Turkey that has the support of NATO in İdlib, fights Turkey in Libya.

 

Tension escalates in İdlib where Syrian civil war is in a deadlock. While Russia and Turkey backed Salafi groups are being hit by Syrian regime and Russia, these groups are forming a line of defense. While it is stated that the M4 Highway and Cabel Zaviye will be the conflict area, Syrian regime, Iran, Russia and Turkey are preparing for war. The operation Turkey is a part to by the hand of NATO may create a different position for all actors in Syria.

 

 

Turkey backed groups have lost their positions in the operations carried out by Syrian regime and were backed as far as to M4 Highway. The operation was stopped with an agreement made between Russia and Turkey on March 5, 2020 and the road was re-opened from Aleppo to Lazkiye, patrolled by both countries. But the patrols have been sabotaged by the actions carried out by groups like Heyet Tehrir El Şam (HTŞ/El Nusra). While Russia called for Turkey to fulfill its duties, Turkey tried to stall things. HTŞ and other groups are also complaining about Turkey not keeping its promises.

 

END OF CEASEFIRE

 

Cabel Zaviye district seems to be the new conflict zone, located between M4 Highway, Hama and Idlib.10 of the 12 military observation points of Turkish Armed Forces are in this area. While both Syrian regime and militias of Iran are deployed here, TSK deploys howitz, tanks and cannons to the region. While the ceasefire ends in Idlib, the possible operation of Syrian regime backed by Russia will likely carry the Turkey backed groups to the city center of Idlib.

 

Turkey have made new plans with USA's Syrian Special Envoy James Jeffery regarding Idlib.A new air defense system called HAWK was deployed here as a result of these talks. Turkey wants to use HAWK as a deterrent against Russia's air strikes but expects more support from NATO regarding Idlib. While new conflicts arises in İdlib, both international and domestic forces prepare for it.

 

The presence of international powers and their subcontractors intertwined the Idlib issue and the Libyan civil war. What happened in Libya also affects the situation in Idlib. The reason for this stems from the presence of both Russia and actors like Turkey being at two places at once. Although they are in the same rank in some places, the two powers that are conducting politics against each other are now facing the Libyan crisis. While the meeting to be held for Libya by the represantatives of Russia and Turkey did not occur, the ceasefire can end any time. While both powers are now focusing on the Libyan crisis, preparations are also being made for Idlib. The war in Libya is being expressed on the developments in Idlib could spread to Russia and Turkey seeking new balances in this regard.

 

 

 

MA / Nazım Daştan