ISTANBUL - Stating that the developments in the Middle East are forcing every country to change, Assoc. Prof. Hakan Güneş said: “What the Kurds will do is important. Kurds are trying to expand their collective rights in a multi-actor and complex equation.”
The chaos in the Middle East is becoming more and more complex with each passing day. On October 7, Hamas launched an attack on Israel under the name of “Al-Aqsa Flood”, followed by Israeli attacks on Gaza and then on Lebanon. As Israel targeted Lebanon, tensions between Israel and Iran also increased. We talked to International Relations Expert Assoc. Prof. Hakan Güneş about the new equations and developments in the Middle East, which has turned into a ring of fire.
'THIS TIME THE CHANGE IS DIFFERENT'
Stating that the balances in the Middle East have changed very often, but this time the change is different and a large geography has turned into a battlefield, Güneş said that there are armed conflicts between Israel and its allies and Iran and its allies. Stating that there are also conflicts in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, “The conflict process that started with Palestine seems to have spread considerably. For the first time in a long time, this kind of inter-state war seems to have started. Iran is carrying out attacks from its own territory and Israel is carrying out attacks from its own territory. This is not a full war. In military terminology, it is a war of attrition. It is a war strategy that is spread over time and seeks to reduce and weaken the other side's resources, capabilities and capacity to fight” he said.
WILL REGIONAL WAR MATERIALIZE?
Noting that Israel, with the support of the US, is trying to draw Iran directly into the war, Güneş said that actors other than Iran and its allied powers are mostly content with watching the current situation. Noting that it does not expect a regional war in the near future in which Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the Iraqi central government or other countries in the region will be directly involved in this war, Güneş said: “This war is more of a war between Iran and its allies and the Palestinian people and countries like the US and Britain that support Israel. There are reasons why other actors are not involved in this war. Because Iran is a strong rival in the region and an actor that needs to be weakened. Therefore, we can say that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Egypt would welcome Hezbollah's loss of power in Palestine. In this way, the forces its support will become more effective. This is also true in other regions and in Yemen and Syria.”
Assoc. Prof. Hakan Güneş
'ISRAEL WILL EXPAND ITS ATTACKS'
Pointing out that Israel will expand its attacks on Hezbollah's positions mainly in South Lebanon and sometimes in Syria, “The Israeli Defense Ministry recently announced that they will expand the ground operation in South Lebanon. But a ground operation is not as easy as it seems. We see that Israel cannot establish its military dominance even in the compressed 15-40 km Gaza area. It may not be able to easily capture the South Lebanon area controlled by Hezbollah, which has a much larger arsenal, technical and technological capabilities and geographical territorial superiority than Hamas, in a few weeks or months or even years. But the ground operation has already begun. Israel wants to minimize Hezbollah's military capacity and war arsenal in South Lebanon. But no one knows how this will turn out” said Güneş.
Noting that Israel's recent destruction of Hezbollah's political and military command center is a great loss for Hezbollah, Gunes said Hezbollah is not “headless” and “doesn't know what to do”. “The collapse of the Hezbollah command center does not mean the collapse of Hezbollah” Güneş said and noting that the slowing down of Israel's ground operation in South Lebanon is an indicator of how effective Hezbollah is in this regard.
US ELECTIONS AND NEW NEGOTIATIONS
Pointing out that a frayed and weakened Iran in the Middle East will create new opportunities for other actors in the region, Güneş said: “Looking at the Middle East from a broad perspective, there are the areas of Iran and its allies, which are mostly based on Shiite communities and organizations. Apart from this, there are various important actors who have problems with each other. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar. Now, these actors think that the attrition of Iran in this process will open up space for them. Secondly, most of these actors also have various problems with the western centers, especially with the US. Therefore, this process provides them with a bargaining power depending on whose side they are willing to put their weight in the regional equation. This gives them the opportunity to create a new framework, a new agreement, a new equation in Qatar-US relations, Riyadh-Saudi Arabia-US relations, Turkey-US relations. In this respect, we can say that the actors I have mentioned are waiting for the US elections and that they will sit at the bargaining table with the new administration, with a stronger hand in the new equation. In a way, despite the bitter reality of this war, there is an opportunity for the states of the region to form new alliances or strengthen their positions in existing alliances.”
US AND TURKEY TENSIONS
Expressing that Turkey's relations with the West have not been at the same strategic level for nearly a decade, Güneş underlined that Turkey is still in the same international political camp. Emphasizing that there are important tensions between Ankara and the western central countries, especially the US, “The most important of these tensions is the Kurds in the region. Especially the support given by the US and the West to the PYD is one of the most important tensions. Secondly, the fact that they do not act together despite following the same perspective in Turkey's Syria policy. The third is the fact that Ankara and Washington have not been able to move forward with a consensus of partnership, although their interests are very close in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and all these areas. Washington is sending a message to Turkey that it needs Ankara to strengthen the western allied front, which includes Israel, and that the US is 'ready' for a new agreement with Turkey and to revisit mutual issues. The concrete headlines of these messages are that Turkey has not been given F-35s until now. Instead, Turkey was to be given new versions of the F-16 fighters, but they are not being given either. Ankara's desired progress in the field of cooperation is not being achieved” he said.
'WHAT THE KURD WILL DO IS IMPORTANT'
Drawing attention to the situation of the Kurds at the center of the war in the Middle East, Güneş said: “Kurds have a very important organizational capacity in the middle of the Middle East, which is not a state. This is the case in Syria, Turkey and Iran. In Iraq, they are a regional administration and a state. This war will have a huge impact on the wider Kurdish geography. As the new geopolitical balances of the Middle East take shape in the new era, what Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey will do is important. But it is also important what the Kurds will do. Kurds are also trying to expand their sphere of existence and their legal and collective rights in a multidimensional, multi-actor and complex equation in the Middle East.”
'THE KURDS ARE AN IMPORTANT ACTOR'
Pointing out that Kurds are an important actor in the field, Güneş said, “Naturally, the Kurdish issue is also an important issue. Turkey, Iran and Iraq look at the Kurdish issue within the framework of the Sadabat Pact. So far, these three states have been acting accordingly. One is not trying to support the Kurds against the other. This approach continues. The expansion of the Kurds' autonomy and the growth of their political existence, especially in Turkey, is not desirable. Because Turkey sees the Kurdish movement as an existential threat. But every country has to make various new arrangements. Because life itself cannot remain as it was before as new forces and new entities emerge.”
'THE KURDISH INITIATIVE IS ALSO THE MIDDLE EAST INITIATIVE'
Expressing that Turkey had failed in previous processes to solve the Kurdish issue, Güneş pointed out that an “opening” in the Kurdish question was also an “opening” to the Middle East. Referring to the current political debates on the solution of the Kurdish question, Güneş pointed out that Devlet Bahçeli's handshake with DEM Party members was a “roll call”.
Güneş continued as follows: “These days, Turkey is once again testing whether a new equation can emerge in Turkey's relations with the Kurds across the region in a way that will affect the general equation in the Middle East. It is not a solution process, but there is a poll. Bahçeli's handshake with DEM Party deputies should be evaluated within this framework. This is a poll. And it is definitely a poll about the shaping of the new process in the Middle East. The balances are not settled, but with various opportunities and possibilities, new process can start for the Turkish bourgeoisie's Middle East expansions. In Turkey's problematic relations with the West, a ground for less problematic or more cooperative relations may emerge. Ankara is working on the advantages of creating a new equation on the Kurdish issue, while at the same time evaluating some options on how this could create a leverage effect in its regional expansions. I do not believe that any of these have been fully decided. Anyway, we will see this together in the coming period.”
MA / Esra Solin Dal